Dallas, Texas (SMU) -- The Republican National Convention opening in Milwaukee next week is dry tinder in an already volatile race for the presidency. SMU political science expert Matthew Wilson shares analysis and a few predictions below.

Since Donald Trump’s nomination was already a lock, did President Joe Biden’s poor performance in the debate or the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity move the needle for his support at the GOP convention?

Wilson: “Trump's support among the RNC delegates was rock-solid before Biden's meltdown, and is even more so now. Likewise, the Supreme Court's immunity ruling lessens the chances that he will face conviction in any of his remaining trials, and may even undo his conviction in the Stormy Daniels case; it has already delayed the sentencing on those charges. So support for Trump at the Republican Convention will be overwhelming and enthusiastic.” 

Is this GOP convention likely to be different than others in history? How so?

Wilson: “The GOP convention will be unusual in several respects. First, it will feature a former president seeking to return to office, something we have not seen in over a century. Second, there will be a greater-than-usual focus on the VP pick, both because of Trump's age (78) and because he is limited to a single term should he win. Trump's promise to wait until just before (or even during) the convention to announce his running mate reflects his sense of drama and showmanship.” 

Should we expect to see anything at this convention designed to attract undecided voters? If so what? 

Wilson: “The GOP should do a lot at the convention to attract undecided voters. Trump could help himself tremendously by just being stable, normal, and reassuring – dismissing as ridiculous the idea that he aspires to be a dictator, balancing his calls for better border security with an embrace of legal immigration, signaling that he intends no federal action on abortion, and offering rhetorical support and reassurance to America's allies. Essentially, he should just give centrist voters alarmed by Biden's diminished state the message that he is a responsible adult and a viable alternative, not the Hitler-in-waiting of Democratic propaganda. Whether he can and will do this remains very much an open question.” 

Who should Trump pick as a VP, and who is he likely to pick? 

Wilson: “Trump should pick Marco Rubio as his VP. Rubio would help with outreach to Hispanic voters (who are already trending Republican), would reassure the GOP donor class, has some charisma on the campaign trail, and has some national name recognition. He probably will pick Doug Burgum because he is a safe, rich non-entity who looks kind of like George Washington and will never upstage Trump (and has never said mean things about him).”

Is it realistic to think that Trump can draw more Latino and Black voters than he did in the previous election? Is he actually broadening his base?

Wilson: “Trump is doing better among Black and Latino voters than he has before in just about every poll. He will almost certainly expand his support in minority communities – the question is how much. If Trump wins 40+ percent of the Latino vote and 20+ percent of the Black vote, it's hard to see him losing. We'll see if those numbers hold until Election Day. One interesting thing to note is that there are big gender gaps in these communities – even more so than among white voters. Black and Hispanic men are much more open to Trump than Black and Hispanic women.” 

Wilson is available for media interviews on this topic and can be reached at (214) 768-4054 and  jmwilson@smu.edu.