In Steve LaNore’s three decades as a meteorologist, including almost 10 years as Chief Meteorologist at KXII in Sherman, he’s never worked through a year like 2015. And there is a good reason for that; the record book has never seen a year like 2015, either.
"I have been a meteorologist 30 years, much of it in Texas including San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and now in Sherman for the past nine years," recalls LaNore. "I’ve seen some crazy years, but 2015 takes the cake."
"First, two consecutive snow/ice events within a week in late February and early March, then widespread tornadoes in May and June along with record floods and a tropical depression," explains LaNore. "Then, a brutal 100-day drought in the mid-summer through early fall and then right back to extreme floods in October and November! The skies opened up for the fall 'show' on October 22, with six to ten inches of rain falling over the next 9 days (Oct 22-24 and Oct 30-31). November racked up even more rain; DFW 9.86”, McKinney 14.03”, Sherman 8.22”."
"On top of that, where did all of those crickets come from? They were awful…."
LaNore discusses weather patterns and statistics
The first half of 2015 and all of the flooding coincided with El Nino ramping up from weak in March to moderate by June. It has come on strong this fall and early winter and is now pretty much tied with 1997/98 for the most intense on record. There are various opinions on how this is determined, and we won’t know for sure until the peak is past, but the bottom line: it’s in the top two.
El Ninos, especially strong ones, tend to give Texas a warm winter as in 1997/98 and 1982/83. We’re likely to have a very warm Christmas this year. The all-time record in Sherman is 88; that won’t be broken, but the record of 78 for Christmas Day in Dallas may survive by just a few degrees.
However, an El Nino is not a guarantee of a warm winter; a moderate El Nino in 2009/10 gave us a super-snowy and very cold winter. Why? Because although a “decent” El Nino was in progress, we also had a highly amplified flow out of the arctic, so we kept getting huge batches of cold air. We also got the “parade” of El Nino low-pressure areas and over-running flow making for several major snow events.
The highly amplified flow of 2009/10 is known as a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This pattern governs how far south cold air gets and can only be forecast out a few weeks. Thus, there’s no way to know for sure if we will “switch” into that later this winter and get a big snow….however…strong El Ninos tend to have fewer cold air outbreaks so the odds of a major snow will be suppressed this year. More likely is an ice event since the cold air events we do get this winter will be shallower making snow less likely and ice a greater threat.
Gardening
It’s been a tough year because of excessive runoff eroding seeds out of the ground in the spring and high water table waterlogging plants both spring and again this fall. We’ve had a big pest problem and I’m certain root rot from the extended periods of rainfall. In between all of that, we received only 20 percent of our normal rain from July to early October so this put further stress on plants going from one extreme to the other! We did NOT have a record string of dry days, but a very parched period from early July to late October.
Top years for rain
(See attached graphic from NWS)
As of Dec 16, DFW Airport has logged 59.49” of rain….170 percent, of average!
#2 1991-92….Moderate/borderline strong El Nino
#6, 2007…Neutral conditions: An El Nino is not always necessary for a wet year, but it helps.
Lake Texoma
On Lake Texoma, the former record water level from 1990 was exceeded twice within a month, the second time thanks to Tropical Depression “Bill” which also caused southern Oklahoma’s Washita River to reach an all-time record level. The Red River at Gainesville also crested at a record high of 42 feet on June 19, 2 feet over the 1987 record.
And what does the meteorologist's crystal ball show for the near future?
"A warm and wet winter overall," predicts LaNore. "Heavy rainfall events and POSSIBLY an ice or snow event if we can get enough cold air."
In addition to being a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, LaNore is also an award-winning author.
