Texas Demographic Center's Vintage 2024 Texas population projections indicate that the state will continue to grow and age over the coming decades. The 65+ population is expected to increase the fastest, while growth among children under 18 will slow and eventually begin to decline. The working-age population will continue to grow and maintain a relatively stable share of the total population.

Texas Projected Population by Age, 2020-2060

Source: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2024 Population Projections, Mid-Migration Scenario.

At the same time, growth will not occur evenly across the state. Major metro areas are projected to see continued population increases, while many rural and some border counties may experience slower growth or population decline. Migration will remain a key contributor to these trends, and the Texas Demographic Center will continue to monitor and share how these patterns evolve in the years ahead.

Projected Numeric Population Change for Texas Counties, 2020-2060

Source: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2024 Population Projections, Mid-Migration Scenario.

Projected Percent Population Change for Texas Counties, 2020-2060

Source: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2024 Population Projections, Mid-Migration Scenario.